Hows the Market?? Here is your Phoenix / West Valley area Real Estate Market Report for December 2022. Happy 2023 everyone!! Hope you all had wonderful 2022 Holiday season! We wish you all the best year ever for 2023!! So let’s talk about this crazy real estate market of 2022!! Since its the year end we will break down the cities one by one to see how they performed this year and a look at where they are headed!
First let’s look at Maricopa County year December and Year end Market. As you all know the first half of 2022 was ridiculously strong with sky rocketing prices, multiple offers, no repairs, buyers giving it their all to get their offer accepted! Now the last half looks very different! Although we have not seen the market “Bust” like some thought was going to happen, in December we saw our first dip in Median home prices, however with the first 2 quarters having such strong increases, YTD values still stayed above 2021 prices.
Maricopa County saw an increase in inventory YTD of 92.63%, because inventory was so drastically low, we are still only at 3.23 months of inventory for Dec, 1.83 months YTD. Still considered more flat market, not quite a buyers market. Median home price in November was flat with 2021, now in December we saw a slight dip -2.82% first time its dipped all year. However YTD still finished 14.21% higher than 2021. If inventory continues to rise, we could start to see prices dip even more.
Avondale increased inventory YTD 200.00%. December still held strong on the median home price of $410,000 with an increase of 2.51% over Dec 202, with a YTD median home price to $430,000 increase of 17.81%. Year end sales by -28.8%.
Buckeye had a 212.82% increase in inventory brining on a dip in Median home price in December of $378,990 of -10.83%, finishing out the year 14.08% over 2021 with a median home price of $427,787. Year end sales were down by -11.0%.
El Mirage inventory increased by 107.69%YTD and median home price dropped by -4.08% in December to $348,300 closing the year out at $427,787 thats an increase of 18.54%. Closed sales down -24.6% YTD.
Glendale increased inventory levels by 106.67%, with a median home price having slight increase for December of 0.76% at $400,000 and increased 16.22%YTD to $430,000. Sales were down YTD by -25.0%
Goodyear increased inventory by 113.25%, with median home sales up 2.13% for December to $480,000 and YTD up 17.69% at $501,340. Sales were down -23.4%YTD.
Laveen increased inventory by 101.06%, with median home sales down -3.23% for December to $419,000 and YTD up 14.14% at $460,000. Sales were up 2.2%YTD.
Litchfield Park increased inventory by 115%, with median home sales down -12.74% for December to $462,9490 and YTD up 13.83% at $535,000. Sales were down -14.2%YTD.
Peoria increased inventory by 135.29%, with median home sales down -5.38% for December to $440,000 and YTD up 16.27% at $499,945. Sales were down -24.8%YTD.
Phoenix increased inventory by 76.67%, with median home sales down -1.25% for December to $395,000 and YTD up 16.12 % at $425,000. Sales were down -1.25%YTD.
Surprise increased inventory by 146.15%, with median home sales down -4.09% for December to $410,000 and YTD up 18.61% at $450,000. Sales were down -21.3%YTD.
Tolleson increased inventory by 233.85%, with median home sales down -2.62% for December to $389,900 and YTD up 18.61% at $427,000 YTD. Sales were down -8.0%.
Waddell increased inventory by 155.91%, with median home sales down -12.08% for December to $467,750 and YTD up 18.47% at $540,000 YTD. Sales were down -11.6%.
Market Insights:
Buyers the tables have turned, you are no longer at the sellers mercy! Sellers are allowing concessions for buyers interest rate buy downs, repairs, what ever they need to secure a buyer for their home. Lenders have loan programs available to over come the rate hikes!
Sellers, this is an extremely competitive market, it is so important to hire an experienced Realtor that is not only skilled at negotiations, staging and able to sell the product they have in your home. Preparing your home is crucial! Buyers don’t want “credits” for things like paint and carpet, go on the market looking clean and move in ready. Obvious signs of deferred maintenance..is not going to sell your house, its only going to cost you thousands in price reductions!
Hows the Market?? Here is your Phoenix / West Valley area Real Estate Market Report for October 2022. Statistically we are now in a blanched market, headed to a “soft buyers” market. In my opinion this market is like a stagnant chess game, both sides holding out. Buyers are on the fence waiting for interest rates to come back down. Sellers are waiting to list in Spring, or deciding to rent. Which in turn means the rental market is seeing a large increase in listings and prices are beginning to come down on leases as well.
However for those sellers motivated to sell for one reason or another we are seeing price reductions, average about $15,000. As well as 47% of sellers gave Buyers concessions towards closing cost or rate buy downs. However with the price reductions all West Valley cities median home prices are still up over last year, just not double digit increases like we had seen.
October closing in Waddell and Tolleson were up over last year, Wadell 14.3% and Tolleson 4.3%. All other cities were considerably down over last year. El Mirage -62.5%, Avondale -52.8%, Surprise -47.9%, Peoria -46.3%, Glendale -45.3%, Phoenix – 43.7%, Buckeye -34.7%, Goodyear -33.3%, Litchfield Park -20.7%, and Laveen -13.6%.
While inventory levels have increased greatly in, we have not seen a plummet or crash in the market. The greater Phoenix area has tremendous employment growth and still a highly desirable retirement state. It is also anticipated that this will be a slow winter for sales and an expected decrease in home prices. Thats good news for Buyers holding out until spring, however with more buyers in the market, sellers may not have the need to offer closing cost incentives.
Market insights:
Greater Phoenix area is still not headed to a market crash, by any means, we still have such a high demand and growth.
Average seller concessions towards buyers closing cost for October closings was $9,000.
Hows the Market?? Here is your Phoenix / West Valley area Real Estate Market Report for August 2022. Well its no secret that the market has cooled down and interest rates have hiked up, but what does that look like in the Maricopa real estate market? Well the rise in rates have definitely lowered demand, causing inventory to rise. As I always say, Real Estate is still a commodity driven by supply and demand so let’s take a look at the inventory supply.
We have seen some pretty big jumps in inventory in the west valley, Maricopa county up 53.93 on August 2021. Tolleson increased 159.32% over same month last year, Buckeye up 156.92%, Avondale increased 133.33%, Waddell 125.64%, Peoria increased 90.32%, Surprise up 88.41%, Laveen up 87.18%, Litchfield Park up 78.65%, Goodyear up 71.62%, Glendale up 62.50%, El Mirage up 51.52%, and Phoenix up 39.08%.
So what does that all mean? Most west valley cities are in a more “balanced market” no longer the strong sellers market we saw the previous few years. So what is all this doing to prices? I am sure you may be seeing price reductions, does that mean the market is busting? Well for right now, that answer is a very clear no, we are seeing price corrections for sure, but the bottom is not falling out.
Home values are still holding steady over last year. Take a look at the chart most west valley cities are still showing an increase in median home prices over the August 2021, most are still having double digit increases.
Obviously we have no idea what interest rates are going to do and although home prices are settling down, buyers are seeing that the mortgage payment is far higher for the same loan amount than it was with rates just a few months ago. The rates are jumping up and down daily, so it,s never been more important than ever to have a great lender on your side that is watching the rates daily. If you don’t already have an awesome lender, I highly recommend Jennifer Gokool at Castle and Cooke Mortage, (623) 512-4087.
If you have been on the fence about buying, perhaps gave up on the multiple offers and feeding frenzy market we had, well good news, theres more homes for you to choose from, most cases you are not having to deal with a bidding war and over 13% of the closed sale last month had sellers concessions. Sellers concessions are a great way to buy down the interest rate for a more affordable payment. Competition is low, and sellers are motivated, its a great time to get a good deal on a home, don’t wait for spring like everyone else to buy!!
Market Insights:
New build construction permits dropped -49% from March to July, this is a good thing that the builders have adjusted quickly so builds will not over supply the market.
Arizona Labor force has grown by 191,877 people, thats 5.7% up from the lowest in April 2020 pandemic.
All 11 major sectors of labor force recorded job gains, high end manufacturing, semiconductors, Construction, transportation and utilities, health care & education, and many companies bringing their industry to Arizona is going to keep housing demand high.
Hows the Market?? Here is your West Valley / Phoenix area Real Estate Market Report for May 2022. Shift Happens, and when it does it happens fast! This shift swooped in quicker than 2006 shift! Just like that shift, many of us saw it coming, just rode the wave as long as it was still hot. But dont be concerned, this is not the same shift in anyway. Highly unlikely that we will see foreclosures and short sales like the past real estate bust, that was all driven by loose lending practices and banks flooding the market with to much inventory driving prices downward. Todays market, homeowners have equity and were very qualified borrowers, long gone has been the “breathe on a mirror”and you are qualified for mortgage! As well these notes over the last several years have historically low interest rates, which makes it much more affordable to own than rent. Security in mortgages is the key difference from todays shift to the past real estate crisis.
As interest rates have hiked the past several weeks, as expected, it bumped many buyers out of the market, as well as bumped most buyers a step down in what they can afford for the same loan amount. Median home price in Maricopa is $467,000, that payment a year ago would had been approx. $1800, todays rates, it’s roughly $2800, reducing buyers purchase price. So whats going in the real estate market, let’s take a look.
So keeping in mind theres a 30-45 day lag time for sales to close escrow, these numbers are true to April sales, which is when we all felt the slow in mid April. So next month we report truer numbers to this shift in the market, but still see the numbers shift for May.
Interestingly enough, all west valley cities still saw slight increases in median home prices, except for Glendale which held flat. Low inventory levels still depict an extreme sellers market, again completely opposite of the mortgage bust when lending institutions shot inventory levels up to 18mths causing a surplus of homes for sale and driving prices down. Maricopa county is sitting at less than 1 month inventory, so typically that low supply would not bring the prices down, only time will tell.
Inventory levels, basically supply demand are the number one contributor to home prices, as sales have slowed, Maricopa county overall all was down -1.13% compared to last year, inventory levels increases in all but two west valley cities. Phoenix is still down -7.23% and El Mirage down -8.82% compared to last year. Because inventory levels effect home prices so drastically thats always an important trend to follow. Avondale is up 155.81%, Buckeye up 87.50%, Tolleson up 68%, Waddell up 58.21%, Laveen up 59.68%, Peoria increased 30.36%, Litchfield Park up 26.19%, Goodyear up 25%, Surprise up 22.13%, and Glendale up 12.50%. Although these increases seem significant, we are still extremely low on supply, Maricopa county has only about 3 weeks inventory supply. All west valley cities are at 1 month or less of inventory.
Closed sales were down compared to last year in all west valley cities except for Laveen up 22.5%, Buckeye 8.3% up and Litchfield Park up 3.8%.
With interest rates expected to continue to rise throughout the rest of the year, and inventory levels creeping up we could see a “balanced market” next year. A bigger factor that we can not for see the effects of the real estate market would be inflation and a looming recession. Last time
inflation was this high, was the 80’s and interest rates were in the double digits. As far as good time to buy, 4-5% current rates could be very good rates compared to just how high they could go.
Market insights:
Although buyer traffic has slowed, there is still a fair amount of buyers still shopping for a home in the Phoenix area. Median priced homes, under $450,000 are still selling daily quickly under 2 weeks.
Price reductions: Most of the price reductions we are seeing are more like “price adjustments.” When 4-5 weeks ago the market was so hot that listings were coming on the market at an increase of what the previous homes had just closed at, thats no longer the case in todays market. So many of the price reductions are listings thats came on the market higher than the closed comps and they are prices adjusting to be in line with the comparable closed sales.
Personally with speaking to so many people about the real estate market, economic state, inflation and extremely high gas and food prices that our country is currently in I think consumer confidence is beginning to impact our local market. I am hearing a lot of buyers getting nervous and holding off on all major purchases for now, until theres more security in the economic state of our country.
So we will just keep tracking it month to month and keep you all up dated best we can with the local market trends.
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Copyright © 2000-2015 Keller Williams ® Realty. - a real estate franchise company. All information provided is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified. Properties subject to prior sale or rental. Each brokerage is independently owned and operated.
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